Our Recession Forecasting Model Is Broken

Of course the U.S. could slip into a recession. But with the economy nowhere close to anyone’s idea of normal, thinking a downturn is coming on the basis of what some model or rule of thumb says could be a mistake. The same goes for putting too much credence in indicators that say the risk […]

Recession Might Not Be the Big Risk for Car Stocks

Don’t worry too much about a recession hitting Detroit. The real concern should be normalizing supply. The U.S. new-car market is stuck in a low but lucrative gear as manufacturers struggle with production. Second-quarter sales came in at around 3.5 million, according to estimates by Edmunds and Cox Automotive, down about 20% from the same […]

Apple Isn’t Priced for a Recession

The “new” Apple isn’t really new. But it is new enough that the 46-year-old company’s modern incarnation has yet to see its resilience truly tested by a global recession. Investors currently aren’t baking one in. Apple’s share price has indeed taken a hard hit over the past few months, along with the rest of the […]